International Relations in a Carbon-Less World Research Paper

Introduction

By the years 2050s, energy demands would be increased significantly due to the population growth and the economic expansion of developing countries. The research findings provided by the United Nations organization, “it is projected that the world population will increase from 7.2 billion to more than 9 billion by 2050” (Curley 9). Undoubtedly, these changes could lead to the intensive use of natural resources and the increase in energy consumption. According to experts, “affordable energy sources are essential for economic and social development, as well as food production, water supply availability and sustainable healthy living”(Curley 9). Alternative energy sources should be affordable as alternative to fossil fuels. Among alternative energy sources are hydrogen fuel, nuclear fission, nuclear fusion, wind, solar, tidal, ocean thermal energy conversion, hydropower, geothermal, and biomass ethanol (Wonning 12).

If affordable alternative energy sources have finally emerged and fossil fuel, such as oil and coil, have become too expensive and thus almost obsolete, there would have been significant changes in the international arena. These changes could affect the United States’ foreign policy and international relations. As an expert in international energy policies, I will provide several policy options to the U.S. Congress.

How plausible is it that affordable alternative energy sources finally emerge and ready for distribution in 5 years? In 10 years? Later?

Affordable alternative energy sources could finally emerge, but they could be ready for distribution in neither 5 nor 10 years. They could be ready for distribution much later than a 5 or 10 year periods for a number of reasons.

First of all, the use of affordable alternative energy sources depends on the economic and environmental effects of the global energy system because the availability of energy resources requires using the proper strategy to ensure consumption of energy resources. Currently, humanity is dependent on combustible fuels, but the use of affordable alternative energy sources would allow solving the problems associated with the environmental risks. Researchers suggest that “yet no primary energy source, be it renewable or nonrenewable, is free of environmental or economic limitations” (Chow et al. 1528). The continuation of economic growth of both developed and developing countries requires improvement and adoption of environmentally benign energy technologies, which are dependent on political and economic changes.

Secondly, affordable alternative energy sources should be tested to prove their efficiency. For example, the use of renewable technologies, which are characterized as environmentally clean energy resources, require assessment of secondary wastes.  Renewable energy resources like biomass and wind energy guarantee positive results in the process aimed at mitigation of negative effects of greenhouse gas emissions, but there may be some complications associated with the effects of this technology on sustainable development (Florini & Sovacool 5241).

 Thirdly, as affordable alternative energy sources could finally emerge, due attention would be paid to the assessment of the negative societal impacts. According to researchers, “energy sources such as solar radiation, the winds, waves and tides are generally considered renewable and, therefore, sustainable over the relatively long term” (Kotharia et al. 3164). There may be possible future energy utilization challenges and related negative environmental impacts of technology. Hence, societal impacts should be properly assessed, including the costs of alternative energy sources. Recent studies show that “alternative energy provides hydrogen at a higher cost; however, fossil fuel feedstock costs are increasing as technology enhancements are decreasing the cost of alternative energy sources, and therefore alternative energy sources may become more economical in the future” (Bartels et al. 8371).

Fourthly, recent research results suggest that the use of traditional policy instruments like research and development promotion strategies, taxation, or relevant subsidization practices could be accompanied by the processes aimed at increasing the social acceptance of alternative energy sources oriented to the wider public (Ziegler 1372). Hence, affordable alternative energy sources could be ready for distribution when the public would be informed of the benefits of these sources.

Assume that that affordable alternative energy sources appear in several years. Which country or countries could be the biggest producers of such sources? Could it be China producing solar panels? Or maybe Brazil with its ethanol fuel? Could it be the United State or the European Union? Or maybe other countries?

Assuming that that affordable alternative energy sources appear in several years, it is possible to predict which country could become the biggest producer of such sources. Taking into consideration the opportunities provided to China, Brazil, the United States and the European Union, there is a need for considering the advantages of the offered sources. Each of the proposed alternative energy sources can replace fossil fuels. However, environmentalists are concerned of the impacts of the sources of energy, such as solar, wind and biomass. These alternative energy sources require specific methods of manufacturing. According to researchers, “most of these energy options are not as green as we might think and all have many advantages as well as disadvantages” (Wonning 1).

Brazil could be the biggest producer of ethanol fuel. The advantages of this energy source include absence of emissions, abundant and renewable capability, and reduction of landfills. However, there are two disadvantages, namely high cost production and inefficiency (Wonning 3). Brazil is considered to be a pioneer of biofuel production and use. Brazil is focused on production of liquid biofuel, namely ethanol, from sugarcane residues. Ethanol can be used as an alternative to petroleum because it is easy to produce. Recent studies show that “Brazil has had an active program for over 30 years and is the world leader both in terms of technology and usage of ethanol” (Hira & De Oliveira 2450). Experts believe that the Brazil’s program could be adopted by other developing countries in the nearest future due to low economy of scale. According to experts, the evolution of Brazil’s ethanol system should be considered by the governments of other countries in developing their energy policies.  

 China could become a leader of solar panels production in the future. The advantages of this source are reliability, renewable capability, absence of pollution, absence of hazardous waste and long lasting performance. The disadvantages of this source are expensive materials, high initial cost, pollution caused by production, dependence on sunlight, disposal problems. Recent studies show that “China is the second largest energy consumer in the world” (Chang et al. 453). The production and consumption of renewable energy in China such as solar, biomass, geothermal, ocean and wind energy, leads to positive results. The usage of solar panels demonstrates a promising prospect in the nearest future, but “biomass is found to be one of the most promising renewable energy resources that have great potential for development in China” (Chang et al. 453).

 Actually, the United State and the European Union could become the biggest producers of alternative energy sources due to their financial opportunities to develop production of such sources in different parts of the world. The production of biodiesel from vegetable oils and from corn practiced in the European Union and the United States correspondingly, allows solving the energy problem across the world (Chang et al. 457).

Probably, no one of the proposed alternative energy sources could completely replace fossil fuels because of high cost production and low efficiency of the alternatives. Several energy sources may eventually replace fossil fuels, such as solar sources and biomass ethanol. However, due attention should be paid to the geographical location which affects the selection of the proper type of alternative energy source. According to researchers, “until technology gives us these sources, fossil fuels will continue being the energy of choice in the near future” (Wonning 31). The dependence on petroleum could be reduced in the nearest future due to the use of alternative energy sources. The emergence of affordable alternative energy sources is predicted in several years due to the enhanced technological progress, but the transition to cost-effective alternatives will take much time.

If oil no longer is a top commodity on the global energy market, how will this new development affect:

  • Washington’s policies toward Saudi Arabia?
  • Washington’s policies toward other oil-producing countries?
  • Washington policies toward China and China’s foreign policy?
  • European Union’s and the United States’ policies toward Russia? 

To start with, Washington’s policies toward Saudi Arabia will be changed because of the decreased demands of oil as a top commodity on the global energy market. Currently, the US foreign policy is “driven by the expansionary forces of US oil companies seeking new reserves and markets or by rising concern about levels of import dependence” (Bromley 225). Due attention should be paid to the American geopolitics that affects energy policy and highlights the role of international oil. The usage of affordable alternative energy sources will allow altering the course of business relations with Saudi Arabia. According to researchers, “the United States does seek to exercise a degree of influence over world oil second to none, but the form of that influence is very ambiguous and very different from the kinds of control over raw materials traditionally associated with imperial powers” (Bromley 225). Since the 1970s, the United States has been the leading importer of oil in the world.

Besides, Washington’s policies toward other oil-producing countries will be changed significantly because of the changes made in foreign policy. In other words, the US net oil imports will be dropped. These cuts in oil imports could lead to positive environmental outcomes as there will be no need to produce oil.  Currently, the US has its priority objective – to collaborate with oil-producing countries, encouraging them to maintain the proper level of oil production that would be permissible to ensure import of oil in reasonable quantities and at affordable prices. The US will continue to operate in the international arena to strengthen the international relations in the carbon –less world.

Moreover, Washington policies toward China and China’s foreign policy will be changed. China as the leading producer of solar panels and other innovative technologies that can be used as alternatives to fossil fuels should be perceived as a key player in the global economic system.

Finally, European Union’s and the United States’ policies toward Russia will be changed due to the cuts of oil imports and changing situation in the global energy market. Actually, the new development will lead to strengthening the international relations between European Union, the United States and Russia. Currently, the effects of the oil price on the global economy may lead to inflation and economic crisis. On the one hand, the increase in oil price is associated with the reduction in oil supply capacity. On the other hand, the increased productivity in developing economies leads to the increase of both the global demand as well as the oil price (International Monetary Fund 32). Anyway, the relations with Russia will depend on the political situation in the US, namely the 2016 presidential elections. Currently, the US sanctions against Russia make the international relations complicated. If oil no longer is a top commodity on the global energy market, the key players in the oil production industry will be replaced. As a result, European Union, the United States and Russia will be focused on common goals – to promote the usage of affordable alternative energy sources.

Undoubtedly, there may be an increased competition between alternative energy sources at the global level. European Union, the United States and Russia will be involved in this process because each of the players can become a leader in the global energy market. Experts ask, “if oil and coal are destined to fall from their position as the world’s paramount source of energy, what will replace them?” Actually, there are several alternatives provided in Michael Klare’s article: natural gas, nuclear power, wind and solar, biofuels and algae, hydrogen and other sources of energy (Klare 1). It becomes clear that European Union, the United States and Russia will be focused on energy efficiency in developing their energy policies. According to experts, “the lead players three decades from now may be the countries and corporations that have mastered the art of producing the most with the least” (Klare 1).  In general, innovations in the energy industry, transportation and in the field of product design and production methods will help to create an energy efficient, carbon-free world (Greene 1620).

Furthermore, it is crucial to consider other factors that affect the changes in European Union’s and the United States’ policies toward Russia. Climate change is an acute global issue that implies drastic modifications in the global energy policy. Each country should be aimed at eliminating global greenhouse gas emissions. At the June 2007 G8 Summit, the heads of leading states support the idea to pursue the common goal – to reduce CO2 emissions. President Bush said, “in setting the global goal for emission reduction in the process we have agreed today involving all major emitters, we will consider seriously the decisions made by the European Union, Canada and Japan, which include at least a halving  of global emissions by 2050. We commit to achieving these goals and invite the major economies to join us in this endeavor” (qtd. in Makhijani 1). Since than time, all countries of the world have supported the idea of promoting CO2 reduction programs. Generally speaking, European Union’s and the United States’ policies toward Russia will be focused on enhancing collaboration in the field of global energy industry through the usage of affordable alternative energy sources (Bang 1646). The dependence of the European countries on natural gas supplies delivered from Russia will be eliminated due to the emergence of affordable alternative energy sources.

If oil no longer is a top commodity on the global market, how this will affect international relations in general? Will the new situation reduce or widen the North-South gap? Will regional conflicts increase or decrease? Will new international alliances (security, political, or economic) emerge and which ones?

The situation in the global energy market influences international relations. There is much evidence that the usage of oil and oil products contributes to the formation of the structure of system of international relations, generating the component of interdependency in the system functioning. If oil no longer is a top commodity on the global energy market, this will have a considerable impact on international relations.  Energy is one of the key factors that affect foreign policy of any state (Evans et al., 1085). According to experts, “enhancing energy supply security is part of the national security agenda of energy importing states” (Shaffer 28).

Some political leaders are criticized for their relation to energy issues as they tend to mix oil related issues and global politics. According to researchers, “the U.S.-led Iraq War was criticized as a war for oil” (Shaffer 1). At the same time, currently many exporters of energy tend to openly use oil as an instrument that helps them to achieve their foreign policy goals. European Union and the United States provide criticism of the use of energy by exporters as the so-called “weapon rather than accept it as a standard and legitimate tool of diplomacy” (Shaffer 1).

Actually, the new situation will reduce the North-South gap for a number of reasons. It is necessary to consider that the North-South gap or divide is the result of unequal relationships between the developed countries of the North and developing countries of the South. According to experts, “those that are oil importers – Tunisia, Morocco and Mauritania – are at the mercy of changes in international oil prices which have progressively increased their energy costs and led them into ever-worsening foreign debt” (Chapman 113).

Besides, regional conflicts will decrease because of the emergence of new alternatives that will not require the use of natural resources. The last decades of political independence for the African states led to the significant economic dependence on external aid. In addition, the countries of the Middle East, which are considered to be rich in natural resources and poor in water supply, demonstrate economic strength, but  continuous politically instability. In general, both regions face the problem of widespread poverty, which requires participation of the Western countries. If oil no longer is a top commodity on the global market, there will be no need to import oil and oil products. Hence, the developing economies will be focused on fostering imports of agricultural products.

Finally, the major new international alliances, including security, political, and economic ones, will emerge at the global arena. These international alliances will be aimed at providing control over the political, economic and environmental issues and improve cooperation between different countries. The usage of affordable alternative energy sources will lead to significant changes in the global politics, but the growth of globalization will be continued (Edenhofer et al. 14). New innovation technologies in the field of energy sector gives rise to the growth of international alliances which will pursue common strategic goals. Global companies will be expanding at the global level, promoting alternative energy sources (Price-Smith 9). As a result, the problem of climate change will be resolved by joint actions of all countries of the world. Self-sufficiency in energy resources will help to improve global economy (Ghosh 62).

Conclusion

Thus, it is necessary to conclude that the issue discussed in this paper is an acute one because it is associated with the exploration of the international relation sin a carbon-less world. Oil has always been a global commodity; therefore, the use of alternative energy sources at reasonable prices guarantees global changes. The key implications for the U.S. foreign policy in a carbon-less world will include the following ones:

  • The need to find new approaches for dealing with international problems;
  • The need to change foreign policies toward Saudi Arabia and other oil-producing countries;
  • The need to change foreign policies toward China and China’s foreign policy;
  • The need to change the United States’ policies toward Russia.

Due to emergence of affordable alternative energy sources, there will be no demand in oil and each country will be able to use other sources of energy to develop economy. Besides, instability and political conflicts in developing countries will not be caused by oil prices. Energy allows to link foreign policy and domestic policy of the state. As a result, international relations will be strengthened if there will be no debates on oil prices. The problem of climate change will be resolved through transformation of the sources of energy and energy consumption options. States will not coerce each other to modify taxation on oil products. All in all, energy should not be used as a weapon in resolving political and economic issues.

References

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